Kenyan households could face further increases in milk and maize flour prices in the coming weeks as higher production costs, expensive transport and weather-related challenges continue to affect food supplies.
The latest agricultural sector survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) points to continued short-term pressure on essential food commodities, even as farmers anticipate improved conditions from the October–December 2026 rainy season.
Milk and maize flour are particularly important to Kenyan households, making any increase in their prices a concern for families already struggling with transport, housing, electricity and other living expenses.
The outlook, however, is not entirely negative. Improved rainfall could support pasture growth, increase milk production and improve agricultural output, potentially easing prices over the coming months if weather conditions remain favourable.
Milk prices: Further increases possible
Milk prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the CBK survey showing widespread expectations of further increases.
According to the September 2026 survey, 74 per cent of respondents expected fresh packaged cow’s milk prices to rise over the following month. Expectations of higher prices for unpackaged fresh milk also increased substantially, with 67 per cent of respondents anticipating an increase.
The pressure follows a decline in milk deliveries to processors during the middle of the year.
The Kenya Dairy Board reported that formal milk deliveries to processors fell by 3.7 per cent between June and July, from 84.4 million litres to 81.3 million litres. The decline was associated with dry and cold conditions that affected pasture and fodder availability in some major milk-producing areas.
When dairy cows have insufficient quality feed and water, milk production can decline. Processors may then face tighter supplies, particularly for fresh milk, potentially putting upward pressure on retail prices.
Market data also points to recent increases. SAFIC AgriIntel, drawing on data from the Ministry of Agriculture’s Kenya Agricultural Market Information System, reported a median retail price of KSh81.25 per litre for cow’s milk at collection points across 14 markets in seven counties in September 2026, up 12.1 per cent from August.
These are market-specific observations rather than a uniform national retail price. The price paid by consumers varies depending on location, whether the milk is raw or processed, packaging and the retailer.
Will milk become cheaper when the rains arrive?
There is cautious optimism that improved rainfall could help stabilise milk prices.
The Kenya Dairy Board has indicated that the October–December rainy season could improve pasture and fodder availability, helping dairy farmers restore production and increase deliveries to processors.
If milk supplies recover sufficiently, the pressure on retailers could ease. However, rainfall alone will not guarantee an immediate reduction in the price of a packet of milk.
Farmers may still face expenses associated with purchased animal feed, veterinary services, labour and transport. The cost of collecting, processing, packaging and distributing milk also affects the final retail price.
The timing and distribution of rainfall will matter as well. Areas receiving adequate rain may experience faster improvements in pasture conditions than regions where rainfall is delayed or uneven.
For consumers, the most realistic expectation is that milk prices could remain elevated in the near term, with the possibility of stabilisation if production and supply improve.
Maize flour prices: Pressure on a household staple
Maize flour is another commodity facing possible price increases.
The CBK’s September agricultural survey found that 40 per cent of respondents expected sifted maize flour prices to increase over the following month, compared with 19 per cent in August.
The findings suggest that the pressure on food prices is not limited to dairy products. Higher fuel prices, transport expenses and production costs could also affect the price of maize flour reaching household kitchens.
Maize production is particularly sensitive to rainfall patterns. Poor rainfall can reduce yields, while excessive rain and flooding can damage crops, disrupt transport and affect storage.
The availability of maize from local harvests and neighbouring countries will also influence prices. If supplies increase sufficiently, markets may experience some relief. If production disappoints or transport and import costs remain high, prices could stay elevated.
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s May 2026 country brief on Kenya had already noted that maize prices were higher than a year earlier in February, partly because of high fuel costs. More recently, reporting by The Star indicated that maize prices rose by 3.3 per cent in July as domestic supplies tightened.
These earlier movements help explain why the latest price outlook remains sensitive to harvest performance and transport costs.
Could the October–December rains bring relief?
The next rainy season is a major factor in the outlook for both milk and maize.
For dairy farmers, improved rainfall can encourage pasture growth and improve the availability of fodder. Better feeding conditions can support milk production and increase deliveries to processors.
For maize farmers, the rains provide an opportunity to establish or improve crops, although the outcome will depend on planting dates, seed quality, fertiliser access, pest management and the amount and distribution of rainfall.
The CBK survey found that 61 per cent of respondents expected overall inflation to ease over the following three months, reflecting hopes that improved agricultural conditions would strengthen food supplies.
That expectation is encouraging, but it is not a guarantee that every food item will become cheaper. A successful harvest takes time to reach markets, and the effects of improved rainfall may not be reflected immediately in retail prices.
Furthermore, excessive rainfall could create new challenges, including flooding, crop losses and damage to rural roads.
What this means for Kenyan households
For families, milk and maize flour price increases can quickly affect weekly budgets because both products are widely consumed.
A household buying two litres of milk daily would spend an additional KSh10 per day if the price increased by KSh5 per litre. Over 30 days, that would amount to KSh300 in extra spending.
Similarly, even a small increase in the price of a two-kilogramme packet of maize flour can add up for families purchasing several packets each week.
These examples are illustrations of how price changes affect household budgets, not predictions of the actual size of future increases.
Consumers can monitor prices at different retailers and markets, compare available package sizes and plan purchases according to household needs. However, these measures have limits, especially for families whose incomes are already stretched.
The broader solution depends on more reliable food production, affordable farm inputs, efficient transport and improved resilience to changing weather conditions.
Milk and maize price forecast: What to expect
The outlook for the coming weeks points to a period of uncertainty rather than a guaranteed increase or decrease.
Milk prices face short-term upward pressure because of reduced production and tighter supplies. Improved pasture conditions could support a recovery, but the timing will depend on rainfall and the ability of farmers to rebuild production.
Maize flour prices could also increase if domestic supplies remain tight and transport and production expenses continue to rise. Better harvests could ease pressure later, although the extent of any reduction will depend on actual output and market conditions.
The main factors to watch are the performance of the October–December rains, milk deliveries to processors, maize harvests, fuel prices and the cost of farm inputs.
For now, households should prepare for the possibility of continued food-price pressure in the short term, while watching for signs that improved agricultural conditions are translating into better supplies and more stable prices.
